November 25, 2009

Fiji growth uncertain, says IMF

As Fiji moves forward with its economic reform agenda, it is faced with an economic growth outlook that remains highly uncertain, a visiting team from the International Monetary Fund has concluded.

“The economy is expected to contract by 2.5 percent in 2009 as the impact of the global crisis has been exacerbated by floods and damaged crops and tourist infrastructure early in the year. GDP growth of two percent is likely in 2010, driven by the rebound in tourism, the devaluation, the global recovery, and rebuilding after the floods. Growth over the medium term should rise to 2.5 percent with fiscal consolidation and progress on structural reforms,” the IMF said in a statement released in Suva today.

“Fiji, however, faces considerable downside risks given its external vulnerabilities. Increased liquidity in the banking system poses risks of inflation, macroeconomic instability, and a loss of competitiveness. The growth outlook remains highly uncertain due to political developments, the fragile nature of the global recovery, volatility of commodity prices, the risk of natural disasters, and the complex structural reform agenda.”

The IMF team, led by Ray Brooks, Division Chief in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF, commended Fijian authorities for their efforts to limit the overall deficit in 2009 to the budgeted level of 3.25 percent of Gross Domestic Product, but noted that central government debt, at over 50 per cent, remained high by regional standards.

“In addition, government has contingent liabilities of around 15 percent of GDP. Fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce central government debt to the government’s target of 45 percent of GDP over the medium term. Limiting the 2010 Budget deficit to around two percent of GDP - excluding costs associated with civil service reforms - would begin to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio.”

The IMF team also gave recommendations on improvements in monetary policy measures as well as the role that the Fiji National Provident Fund, Fiji’s only public superannuation fund, plays in the local economy.

While in Fiji, the IMF team met with Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, Reserve Bank of Fiji Governor Sada Reddy, Acting Finance Minister and Attorney-General Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Finance permanent secretary John Prasad and other government officials and members of the private sector and civil society.

Representatives from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank also took part in the meetings.

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